A gas furnace is better for cold climates (below 25°F design temperatures) and areas with cheap natural gas, while a heat pump is better for mild-to-moderate climates and homes that need both heating and cooling in a single system. The ideal choice for your home depends on your climate zone, local fuel prices, existing infrastructure, and whether you prioritize the lowest operating cost or the lowest upfront cost.
Here's the bottom line: in Climate Zones 1–4 (roughly the southern two-thirds of the U.S.), heat pumps typically win on total cost of ownership. In Zones 5–7 (northern states), gas furnaces still dominate — though cold-climate heat pumps are closing the gap fast.
The 14-Point Comparison
Let's break down each factor in detail.
1. How They Work: Fundamentally Different
A gas furnace creates heat by burning natural gas in a combustion chamber. The flame heats a metal heat exchanger, and a blower pushes air across it into your ducts. It's a heat-generation system — fuel in, heat out.
A heat pump doesn't create heat — it moves it. Even in cold outdoor air, there's thermal energy available. The heat pump uses a refrigerant cycle (the same technology as your refrigerator, but in reverse) to absorb heat from outdoor air and release it inside. In summer, it reverses to work as an air conditioner.
This difference explains why heat pumps can be 200–400% efficient — they're not converting electricity to heat (which maxes out at 100%), they're using electricity to transport heat (which can move 2–4× more heat energy than the electricity consumed).
2. Heating + Cooling: The System Cost Advantage
This is the heat pump's single biggest advantage. A heat pump replaces both your furnace AND your air conditioner in one system.
The dual-fuel system is the best-of-both-worlds approach. It pairs a heat pump with a gas furnace. The heat pump handles heating when outdoor temperatures are above 30–35°F (when it's most efficient). The gas furnace kicks in below that threshold when the heat pump's efficiency drops. This configuration delivers the lowest possible operating costs in cold climates while ensuring reliable heat on the coldest days.
3. Efficiency: Heat Pumps Win on Paper, But Climate Matters
A gas furnace's efficiency is measured by AFUE — the percentage of fuel converted to heat. Top gas furnaces hit 98.5% AFUE.
A heat pump's heating efficiency is measured by HSPF2 (Heating Seasonal Performance Factor) or COP (Coefficient of Performance). These reflect how much heat is delivered per unit of electricity consumed.
Key insight: a gas furnace delivers the same efficiency regardless of outdoor temperature. A heat pump's efficiency drops as it gets colder outside. At around 25–35°F (depending on the model), the heat pump's COP drops enough that its operating cost per BTU approaches or exceeds that of a gas furnace.
4. Operating Cost: Depends on Climate and Fuel Prices
5–6. Upfront Cost: Furnace Wins Alone, Heat Pump Wins as a System
If you only need heating, a gas furnace is $2,000–$5,000 cheaper to install than a heat pump. But most homes need both heating AND cooling. When you factor in the cost of a separate air conditioner for the furnace system, the heat pump is often less expensive as a complete HVAC system.
7. Cold Weather Performance
This is the gas furnace's strongest advantage. A gas furnace produces the same BTU output whether it's 40°F or -20°F outside. A heat pump's output drops as temperatures fall because there's less thermal energy to extract from colder air.
Standard heat pumps lose roughly 40–50% of their rated capacity at 17°F — the temperature at which most heat pumps are rated. Cold-climate heat pumps (hyper-heat models) maintain higher capacity down to -5°F to -15°F, but they still need electric backup heat for the most extreme cold.
Cold-climate heat pump technology has improved dramatically. Models like the Mitsubishi Hyper-Heat (MSZ-FS), Bosch IDS 2.0, and Carrier Infinity 25VNA4 can operate at full rated capacity down to -5°F to -15°F with COP above 1.5. For most of the continental U.S., these units can handle 95%+ of winter hours without backup heat. Still, in the most extreme northern climates (Alaska, northern Minnesota, Montana), a gas furnace remains the most reliable primary heat source.
8. Supply Air Temperature: The "Comfort" Factor
One of the most common complaints from homeowners switching from a furnace to a heat pump: "the air doesn't feel as warm." This is because:
- Gas furnace supply air: 120–140°F (feels noticeably warm from the register)
- Heat pump supply air: 90–110°F (feels tepid, especially below 30°F outdoors)
The heat pump IS heating your home — 95°F air is still warmer than your body temperature and your 68°F room — but the psychological perception of cooler supply air makes some homeowners feel like the system "isn't working." This is normal and doesn't mean the heat pump is underperforming.
Modulating heat pumps with variable-speed air handlers minimize this issue by running longer at lower output, maintaining a more consistent supply temperature.
9. Lifespan
Gas furnaces typically outlast heat pumps because the heat exchanger — the component most likely to fail — is a passive metal structure with no moving parts. Heat pumps have outdoor compressors and reversing valves that experience more wear.
Average lifespans:
- Gas furnace: 18–20 years (range: 15–25)
- Heat pump: 12–15 years (range: 10–20)
- Gas furnace + AC system: 15–20 years (AC may need replacement first)
The shorter heat pump lifespan partially offsets its operating cost savings. If a heat pump saves $200/year but needs replacement 5 years sooner, the net savings is reduced by the replacement cost premium.
10. Maintenance
Gas furnaces need annual professional maintenance: heat exchanger inspection, burner cleaning, flame sensor cleaning, gas connection check, and safety control testing. Cost: $80–$200 per visit.
Heat pumps need twice-yearly maintenance — once before heating season and once before cooling season — because they run year-round. Each visit costs $75–$175. Annual maintenance total: $150–$350.
Both systems benefit from regular filter changes (every 1–3 months), which homeowners can handle themselves.
11. Safety: No CO Risk with Heat Pumps
Gas furnaces produce carbon monoxide (CO) as a byproduct of combustion. A properly functioning furnace vents all CO safely outside, but a cracked heat exchanger, blocked flue, or backdrafting can introduce CO into your living space. CO is odorless and can be lethal.
Heat pumps have zero combustion, zero CO risk. This is a meaningful safety advantage, especially for tightly sealed modern homes with less natural ventilation.
If you have a gas furnace, install CO detectors on every floor of your home, including near sleeping areas. Test them monthly and replace batteries annually. CO poisoning from furnaces is responsible for hundreds of ER visits each year.
12–14. Environmental Impact, Noise, and Other Factors
Environmental: Heat pumps produce less carbon emissions than gas furnaces in most of the U.S., especially in states with cleaner electricity grids. As the grid continues to decarbonize, the heat pump advantage grows over time.
Noise: Gas furnaces are quieter overall because the noisy components (blower) are indoors and insulated, with no outdoor unit. Heat pumps have an outdoor compressor that generates 55–75 dB — roughly the volume of a normal conversation to a running dishwasher. This can be a concern for bedroom windows or close neighbors.
Resale value: Heat pumps are increasingly seen as a premium feature, particularly in mild-to-moderate climates. In cold climates, a dual-fuel system (heat pump + gas furnace) adds the most value.
Decision Framework: Which Is Right for You?
Real-World Examples
Example 1: The Millers — Minneapolis, MN (Zone 6) Chose a 96% gas furnace ($5,200 installed) + 16 SEER AC ($4,100 installed) = $9,300 total. Annual heating cost: $1,150. Annual cooling cost: $350. Total: $1,500/year. A comparable heat pump system would have cost $8,500 with estimated annual cost of $2,100 (including backup heat). The gas + AC combo saves $600/year in this cold climate.
Example 2: The Reyes Family — Charlotte, NC (Zone 4) Chose a dual-fuel system: heat pump + 80% gas furnace backup, $10,200 installed. The heat pump handles heating down to 30°F (about 85% of winter hours). The gas furnace kicks in below 30°F. Annual heating cost: $580. Annual cooling cost: $450. Total: $1,030/year — saving roughly $350/year over a gas-only system while gaining more efficient cooling.
Example 3: The Carters — Tampa, FL (Zone 2) Chose a heat pump ($6,800 installed). No gas line, no need for one. Heating costs are minimal ($180/year), cooling costs are the main expense ($850/year). Total: $1,030/year. A gas furnace + AC would have cost more to install and operate in this cooling-dominant climate.
Example 4: The O'Briens — Portland, ME (Zone 6) Chose a Mitsubishi cold-climate heat pump with electric backup ($9,500 installed). No gas line was available, and running one would have cost $8,000. Annual heating cost: $1,600 (lower than the $2,200 they were spending on oil). While a gas furnace would have been cheaper to operate ($1,000/year), the gas infrastructure cost made the heat pump the better total investment. They'll break even within 7 years compared to the gas conversion option.
Key Takeaways
- Gas furnaces win in cold climates (Zones 5–7) on operating cost and reliability below freezing.
- Heat pumps win in mild-to-moderate climates (Zones 1–4) on total system cost, operating cost, and versatility.
- Dual-fuel systems offer the best of both worlds but at the highest upfront cost. Ideal for moderate-cold climates (Zones 4–5).
- Supply air temperature (120–140°F from a furnace vs. 90–110°F from a heat pump) is a real comfort difference that bothers some homeowners.
- Heat pumps last 3–5 years less than gas furnaces on average, which partially offsets their efficiency advantage.
- If you're replacing both your furnace and AC, a heat pump is often the most cost-effective single solution.
- Cold-climate heat pump technology is rapidly improving — models that maintain output down to -15°F are making heat pumps viable even in Zone 6.
- The installer and sizing matter more than the technology. An oversized heat pump or poorly installed furnace will underperform regardless of which you choose.
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